Resolution criteria

This market resolves YES if a fatal shooting by ICE (Immigration and Customs Enforcement) or related federal immigration enforcement agents occurs between January 26, 2026 and March 1, 2026. A fatal shooting is defined as an incident where an ICE or federal immigration agent discharges a firearm and the victim dies as a direct result.

Resolution will be determined by credible news reports from major outlets (AP, Reuters, NPR, NBC News, CNN, etc.) documenting the death. The market resolves NO if no such fatal shooting occurs by March 1, 2026.

Background

There have been at least 27 shootings by immigration agents since January 20, 2025, of which 8 have resulted in deaths. Federal immigration officers have shot 12 people since September as the Department of Homeland Security has ramped up deportation operations around the country. In the latest shooting on Jan. 24, a federal agent killed Alex Pretti, 37, just weeks after the fatal shooting of Renee Good, also 37. In the majority of the shootings, including Good's, officers have fired into cars — a tactic that law enforcement authorities and policing experts have been trying for decades to curtail.

Considerations

The shootings "are not one-offs," according to a former police chief who now runs a research group. "This is clearly developing into a pattern and practice of how they deal with people in the enforcement of immigration laws." Analysts have noted an unusually large proportion of immigration police shootings in this period involved officers firing into moving vehicles.

I'll search for the most current information about ICE shootings to ensure the description is accurate and up-to-date.#### Resolution criteria

This market resolves YES if a fatal shooting by ICE or federal immigration enforcement agents occurs between January 26, 2026 and March 1, 2026. A fatal shooting is defined as an incident where an ICE or federal immigration agent discharges a firearm and the victim dies as a direct result.

Resolution will be determined by credible news reports from major outlets (AP, Reuters, NPR, NBC News, CNN, etc.) documenting the death. The market resolves NO if no such fatal shooting occurs by March 1, 2026.

Background

There have been at least 27 shootings by immigration agents since January 20, 2025, of which 8 have resulted in deaths. Federal immigration officers have shot 12 people since September as the Department of Homeland Security has ramped up deportation operations around the country. In the latest shooting on Jan. 24, a federal agent killed Alex Pretti, 37, just weeks after the fatal shooting of Renee Good, also 37. In the majority of the shootings, including Good's, officers have fired into cars — a tactic that law enforcement authorities and policing experts have been trying for decades to curtail.

Considerations

In January 2026, The Wall Street Journal identified at least 13 instances of immigration officers "firing at or into civilian vehicles" since July 2025, resulting in at least 8 total gunshot wounds, two of which led to deaths. Trump's administration controls an ICE force that has doubled in size in recent months, now topping 22,000 agents, tasked with reaching a ballooning daily detention goal of 100,000, nearly three times the typical rate.

• Update 2026-01-27 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Agencies included in "related federal immigration enforcement agents":

  • U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE)

  • U.S. Customs and Border Protection (CBP), including Border Patrol

  • Both are federal agencies under the Department of Homeland Security

  • Does NOT include state entities such as the National Guard