How many people will ICE/CBP kill in 2026?

MANIFOLD

Ṁ250Ṁ360

2027

10.8 people

expected

ALL

2 - 3

19%

4 - 5

21%

6 - 8

15%

9 - 11

12 - 14

15 - 17

18 - 20

10%

Above 20

This refers to people killed "in the street" not in detention centers.

Here is the current count as of 1/26/26: 2

1/7/26: Renee Good

1/24/26: Alex Jeffrey Pretti

Market context

Immigration

Get

1,000

to start trading!

People are also trading

Will fatal ICE shooting in the US occur again before March 2026?

77% chance

Will ICE or CBP kill another civilian, which sparks at least one protest, by the end of January 2027?

92% chance

ICE agent murdered on duty by end of 2026?

42% chance

Will the ICE deployment in Minnesota be substantially reduced by June 1, 2026?

85% chance

Will there be a large violent dispute between protesters and ICE in 2026?

71% chance

How many U.S. civilians will be killed by federal law enforcement agents in 2026?

763

Will police in the usa kill more people in 2026 than in 2025?

60% chance

What is the largest number of people US federal law enforcement will kill in a single incident before January 20, 2029?

ICE spends at least $25.5 billion in 2025? (budget estimate: $30 billion)

86% chance

Will ICE be deployed at polling stations during the 2026 midterm elections?

Sort by:

Does this include people in holding facilities?

@LarsOsborne I am looking for an authoritative source. Your thoughts?

@MichaeldelaMaza my question is about intent.

I could interpret this as only applying to people intentionally killed by ice in the street or in pursuit. I could interpret this as the above and those intentionally killed in custody, or I could interpret it as all people who died while in custody or while interacting with ICE.