How many people will ICE/CBP kill in 2026?

MANIFOLD

Ṁ250Ṁ420

2027

10.5 people

expected

ALL

2 - 3

20%

4 - 5

22%

6 - 8

16%

9 - 11

12 - 14

15 - 17

18 - 20

11%

Above 20

This refers to people killed "in the street" not in detention centers.

Here is the current count as of 1/26/26: 2

1/7/26: Renee Good

1/24/26: Alex Jeffrey Pretti

Market context

Immigration

Get

1,000

to start trading!

People are also trading

ICE kills another US citizen by end of February 2026

22% chance

Will fatal ICE shooting in the US occur again before March 2026?

38% chance

Will ICE, including CBP, be involved in violent activities at the 2026 Super Bowl?

31% chance

Will ICE be deployed at polling stations during the 2026 midterm elections?

48% chance

Will ICE or CBP kill another civilian, which sparks at least one protest, by the end of January 2027?

87% chance

How many U.S. civilians will be killed by federal law enforcement agents in 2026?

763

ICE agent murdered on duty by end of 2026?

39% chance

Before December 31, 2026, will an ICE agent kill another American citizen?

65% chance

Will police in the usa kill more people in 2026 than in 2025?

64% chance

What is the largest number of people US federal law enforcement will kill in a single incident before January 20, 2029?

5 Comments

6 Holders

13 Trades

Sort by:

Does this include people in holding facilities?

@LarsOsborne I am looking for an authoritative source. Your thoughts?

@MichaeldelaMaza my question is about intent.

I could interpret this as only applying to people intentionally killed by ice in the street or in pursuit. I could interpret this as the above and those intentionally killed in custody, or I could interpret it as all people who died while in custody or while interacting with ICE.