MANIFOLD
What will happen as a result of the shooting of Renee Good in the next 2 Years?
67
Ṁ1.8kṀ8.2k
2028
79%
ICE kills another civilian
43%
George Floyd-level protests
3%
Nothing
25%
Insurrection Act/Martial Law in Minneapolis
59%
The ICE agent is charged by Minnesota authorities
44%
An ICE agent is killed
52%
Trump pardons the ICE agent
4%
Nationwide firearm ban for civilians
26%
Kristi Noem is impeached
56%
Trump deploys the National Guard to Minnesota
84%
The office of the Minnesota governor deploys the Minnesota National Guard
25%
The ICE agent is fired
14%
Trump declares a national emergency that could be used to justify postponing or interfering with the next election.
57%
The killer will be given medical leave, paid vacation, and required to attend a two-week training program (type shit)

  • Update 2026-01-08 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator will use subjective judgment to determine whether a future ICE civilian killing qualifies as being "as a result of" the prior ICE shooting in Minneapolis.

  • Update 2026-01-08 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The answer about "medical leave, paid vacation, and required to attend a two-week training program" will be interpreted broadly as the ICE agent receiving a slap on the wrist, rather than requiring exact adherence to the specific details (e.g., exactly two weeks of training).

  • Update 2026-01-24 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Border Patrol is not ICE - for this answer to resolve YES, the killing must be by an ICE agent specifically, not by Border Patrol or other federal agents.

  • Update 2026-01-24 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): For the answer "ICE kills another civilian" to resolve YES, the creator will use subjective judgment to determine causation. The creator considers that increased tensions between protestors/observers leading to more conflicts leading to someone getting shot would satisfy the "as a result of" requirement.

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@NivlacM @traders leaning towards yes resolution here. I've seen some people say it was border patrol but the headlines I see say ICE

Edit: Nevermind! Border patrol is not ICE!

sold Ṁ14 NO

@NivlacM it’s still unclear, where are you seeing ICE in headlines?

bought Ṁ3 NO

@NivlacM NYT, Reuters, and AP News all say federal agent, not a specific agency. Wall Street Journal just updated to say border patrol agent. If the resolution says ICE, it has to be ICE. Border Patrol is not ICE.

bought Ṁ30 NO

@NivlacM That's a british publication, I would tend to trust American newspapers more on this

sold Ṁ43 YES

@prismatic from NYT.

bought Ṁ50 NO

@JimD yeah nice find, so its BP not ICE

@NivlacM The market is for ICE, and you don't have to rush to resolve.

@CraigDemel @traders good things I said something. BP is not ICE! This option remains open!

@NivlacM I thought there might be a higher bar to a new shooting being determined "a result of" the Good shooting

sold Ṁ26 YES

@marvingardens I think most traders forget that part.

@marvingardens I agree with this, the option doesn't make that much sense in the context of the title (I have no mana on it either way)

sold Ṁ19 NO

@marvingardens yeah the rest of the options make sense but attributing killing another person due to the effects of Renne Good is a very high bar (outside of premediated murder).

@marvingardens increased tensions between protestors/observers leading to more conflicts leading to someone getting shot seems to satisfy the "result of" in my mind

@NivlacM hmm, just seems unfalsifiable when put like that. might as well have called the market "what will happen in the next two years"

@marvingardens ICE kills someone they're trying to deport would not be a result of Renee Good's shooting in my mind

@NivlacM ok but i mean these are just just-so stories you're writing. like you posited this chain of causation but is it /true/? was this guy not gonna be out and/or were these officers going to be chill if Good wasn't shot? is it true or just a story

bought Ṁ100 NO

@DavidS how could this possibly resolve YES?

@Alva seems like no, just prep, but there's room for factfinding here

See the original if you want a market that will resolve sooner!

bought Ṁ10 YES

Those ICE agents are being funded while programs like Obamacare are cut, traveling into states where they are not welcomed, and ending up involved in lethal incidents against American civilians on urban streets.

In most countries this is how civil wars are ignited

@Areal you won't can't me that easy inflammatory newish account. I for one love our glorious leader!

@NivlacM Right, democracy is a thing of the past. Ahead lies a clean and orderly dictatorship of boomers

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