Each answer resolves YES at 00:01 on the date listed in the answer, if Keir Starmer is Prime Minister AND has been so continuously since his appointment following the 2024 election.
If he loses his job for any reason (including death/firing/resignation/losing an election) then all remaining answers will resolve NO.
Add more dates if you want more granularity.
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Honestly I think the prices on a 2026 leave date are daft. I’m happy to keep sticking limit orders on, but 2026-out buyers, what process do you see this happening by? Starmer isn’t going to resign short of losing a leadership contest. Burnham isn’t getting the Gorton and Denton seat, so any challenger has to be a current MP. And they have to be able to get 120 other MPs on board to even trigger that contest. Do you think Streeting has that level of support? Or Rayner? I don’t.
If you don’t want to tell me then just buy into my limit orders.
@Noit Burnham turning down an offer of a seat in 2027 might mean he hasn't given up on 2026 ambitions: https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2026/jan/26/andy-burnham-try-again-westminster-return
Also, we don't know yet how the May elections are going to go. If they're bad enough, there might be enough MPs calling for Starmer to resign that he'll consider his position untenable. Or even if he doesn't, maybe the Rayner/Streeting supporters will reach 120.
I'm not saying this is very likely to happen, and I'm certainly not buying your limit orders, but I'm hesitant to move the market much higher than where it is just now.
Generally the government in the UK lasts for its whole political term and so does the prime minister, the conservative party (before the current government took power) experimented though with a series of short term prime ministers. Think like a disposable camera, but a prime minister version.