Will Keir Starmer's successor have a longer tenure as prime minister than Keir?
15
Ṁ1kṀ1k2031
60%
chance
1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Resolves based on length of tenure according to wikipedia or in case not recorded there, significant publications of record or authoritative media. From being instilled by the crown to resignation to the crown.
Market closure date will be adjusted to ensure stays open in normal circumstances to successor submitting resignation to crown.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Market context
Get 
1,000 to start trading!
1,000Sort by:
Burnham has already floated the idea of a GE. This idea will be pushed into him harder by the opposition as he currently holds very little legitimacy. (Assuming Burnham will be PM)
Under current polling Reform are most likely to win a GE (with current voting rules). Therefore if Burnham calls a GE he is likely to lose it.
People are also trading
Related questions
Who will be the next UK Prime Minister after Keir Starmer?
On what dates will Keir Starmer still be Prime Minister of the United Kingdom?
Will Keir Starmer have a full term as Prime Minister?
1% chance
On what dates will Keir Starmer’s successor be Prime Minister of the United Kingdom?
Will Keir Starmer be UK Prime Minister at the end of 2029?
2% chance
If Keir Starmer is out as UK PM in 2026, will he…..?
Will Keir Starmer lead the Labour Party for longer than Tony Blair did?
1% chance
When will Keir Starmer be replaced as Prime Minister of the UK?
Next UK prime minister tenure? (After Keir Starmer)
If Keir Starmer ceases to be Prime Minister in 2026, will Labour win the next UK general election?
29% chance