This market resolves YES if Vedanta Aluminium (Vedanta Limited)'s primary aluminum production for calendar year 2028 (January 1 – December 31, 2028) exceeds 2.6 million tonnes.

Settlement is May 31, 2029 — the close pushes ~5 months past year-end so the producer's full-year financial report and December 2028 monthly print are well-published before resolution.

Context. Vedanta Aluminium. FY24 2.4 Mt; brownfield expansion ramping. The 2.6 Mt strike for calendar 2028 sits near the run-rate; if the FY26 2.8–3.0 Mt target is met on schedule, 2028 production could come in above this strike. Calendar-year resolution sums FY28 Q4 + FY29 Q1–Q3 quarterly releases.

Resolution sources (priority order):

Vedanta Limited quarterly results and annual report https://www.vedantalimited.com/

Vedanta Aluminium quarterly production updates https://vedantaaluminium.com/

International Aluminium Institute (IAI) primary aluminum statistics https://international-aluminium.org/statistics/primary-aluminium-production/

Reuters / Bloomberg / Argus aluminum coverage for cross-validation

Related markets across the cluster (calendar year 2028)

Upstream supply:

• Indonesia primary aluminum production

• Indonesia alumina capacity

• China alumina production

• Guinea bauxite exports

Producers (CY2028):

• Alcoa

• Century

• Chalco

• EGA

• Hindalco

• Hongqiao

• Norsk Hydro

• Rio Tinto

• Rusal

Electricity hubs (CY2028):

• MISO Indiana Hub

• Nord Pool

• OMIE Spain

• Vic NEM

• WA SWIS

Same market, other calendar year:

• Vedanta CY2027