This market resolves YES if Emirates Global Aluminium (EGA)'s primary aluminum production for calendar year 2028 (January 1 – December 31, 2028) exceeds 2.8 million tonnes.

Settlement is May 31, 2029 — the close pushes ~5 months past year-end so the producer's full-year financial report and December 2028 monthly print are well-published before resolution.

Context. Emirates Global Aluminium. 2024 actual 2.69 Mt; modest UAE growth. The 2.8 Mt strike for 2028 reflects continued UAE-base growth; the Century-EGA Inola JV first metal targeted late 2028 contributes only a partial year. EGA's consolidation footprint of Inola is partial (50/50 JV).

Resolution sources (priority order):

EGA annual financial results press release https://www.ega.ae/en/

EGA media center / production milestone announcements https://media.ega.ae/

International Aluminium Institute (IAI) primary aluminum statistics https://international-aluminium.org/statistics/primary-aluminium-production/

Reuters / Bloomberg / Argus aluminum coverage for cross-validation

Related markets across the cluster (calendar year 2028)

Upstream supply:

• Indonesia primary aluminum production

• Indonesia alumina capacity

• China alumina production

• Guinea bauxite exports

Producers (CY2028):

• Alcoa

• Century

• Chalco

• Hindalco

• Hongqiao

• Norsk Hydro

• Rio Tinto

• Rusal

• Vedanta

Electricity hubs (CY2028):

• MISO Indiana Hub

• Nord Pool

• OMIE Spain

• Vic NEM

• WA SWIS

Same market, other calendar year:

• EGA CY2027