This market resolves YES if Century Aluminum's primary aluminum production for calendar year 2028 (January 1 – December 31, 2028) exceeds 0.7 million tonnes.

Settlement is May 31, 2029 — the close pushes ~5 months past year-end so the producer's full-year financial report and December 2028 monthly print are well-published before resolution.

Context. Century Aluminum. 2024 actual 0.69 Mt; Inola JV (Century-EGA) first metal targeted late 2028 with ~600 kt/yr nameplate. The 0.7 Mt strike for 2028 reflects steady-state operations; partial-year Inola contribution could push 2028 above this strike, making the probability anchored at or just above 50%.

Resolution sources (priority order):

Century Aluminum 10-K filings (SEC EDGAR) https://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/browse-edgar?action=getcompany&CIK=0000949157

Century Aluminum quarterly earnings releases https://centuryaluminum.com/

International Aluminium Institute (IAI) primary aluminum statistics https://international-aluminium.org/statistics/primary-aluminium-production/

Reuters / Bloomberg / Argus aluminum coverage for cross-validation

Related markets across the cluster (calendar year 2028)

Upstream supply:

• Indonesia primary aluminum production

• Indonesia alumina capacity

• China alumina production

• Guinea bauxite exports

Producers (CY2028):

• Alcoa

• Chalco

• EGA

• Hindalco

• Hongqiao

• Norsk Hydro

• Rio Tinto

• Rusal

• Vedanta

Electricity hubs (CY2028):

• MISO Indiana Hub

• Nord Pool

• OMIE Spain

• Vic NEM

• WA SWIS

Same market, other calendar year:

• Century CY2027