Resolution criteria
This market resolves YES if Alcoa's aluminum segment production in 2026 exceeds 2.3 million metric tons (2,300 kt), as reported in the company's official full-year 2026 earnings release or SEC filings. The resolution will be based on actual production figures disclosed by Alcoa Corporation for the calendar year 2026. Resolution source: Alcoa Investor Relations or SEC EDGAR filings.
Background
Alcoa expects 2025 aluminum segment production of 2.3-2.5 million tonnes, with the lower bound at exactly 2.3 Mt. In Q3 2025, aluminum segment production increased 1% sequentially to 579,000 metric tons, driven by continued progress on the San Ciprián, Spain smelter restart.
Aluminum production increased 5% annually in 2024 primarily due to the restart of capacity at the Warrick smelter and continued progress on the Alumar smelter restart. Alcoa locked a 10-year energy deal with the New York Power Authority, which aims to deliver 240 megawatts of competitively priced renewable energy to its Massena Operations starting on April 1, 2026, with a $60 million investment into upgrading the facility's anode baking furnace.
Considerations
The 2.3 Mt threshold represents the midpoint of Alcoa's 2025 guidance range. Whether 2026 production exceeds this level depends on successful completion of ongoing smelter restarts (San Ciprián in Spain, Warrick in the U.S.) and the ramp-up of the Massena facility following its energy contract commencement in April 2026. Tariff policies, aluminum prices, and energy costs will materially influence production decisions and capacity utilization rates.
1,00081.44% estimate
The model analyzes fifteen drivers including San Ciprian Smelter Restart and Utilization, Global Aluminum Prices, Warrick Smelter Restart and Utilization, Massena Power Agreement and Renewable Transition, and Energy Costs and Availability, examining how operational execution at key facilities interacts with market conditions and cost pressures. Analysis indicates 81.4% probability of exceeding 2.3 Mt production, primarily driven by successful restart execution at San Ciprian and Warrick facilities combined with strong aluminum prices above $3,000 per ton and a tightening global supply deficit.
Currently, nine drivers operate in favorable High states including both major smelter restarts, operational efficiency, and market demand, while energy costs remain the primary constraint in Low state. The dominant dynamic reveals that smelter restart execution outweighs energy cost pressures in determining production outcomes. San Ciprian Smelter Restart and Utilization and Warrick Smelter Restart and Utilization represent the critical influence points, while sustained high aluminum prices and stable labor relations provide essential support for maximizing output throughout 2026.