This market resolves YES if Alcoa Corporation's primary aluminum production for calendar year 2027 (January 1 – December 31, 2027) exceeds 2.6 million tonnes.

Settlement is May 31, 2028 — the close pushes ~5 months past year-end so the producer's full-year financial report and December 2027 monthly print are well-published before resolution.

Context. Alcoa's 2024 Aluminum segment shipments came in at 2.5–2.6 Mt (per the Q4 2024 earnings release), with modest expansion underway at the Pinjarra refinery / smelter complex (Western Australia) and Alumar (Brazil). The 2.6 Mt median for 2027 reflects roughly flat operations with small Pinjarra/Alumar contribution; this strike sits at the 50/50 middle of plausible 2027 outcomes.

Resolution sources (priority order):

Alcoa Corporation Q4 2027 / full-year financial release https://news.alcoa.com/press-releases

Alcoa Corporation 10-K filing (SEC EDGAR) https://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/browse-edgar?action=getcompany&CIK=0001675149

International Aluminium Institute (IAI) primary aluminum statistics https://international-aluminium.org/statistics/primary-aluminium-production/

Reuters / Bloomberg / Argus aluminum coverage for cross-validation

Related markets across the cluster (calendar year 2027)

Upstream supply:

• Indonesia primary aluminum production

• Indonesia alumina capacity

• China alumina production

• Guinea bauxite exports

Producers (CY2027):

• Century

• Chalco

• EGA

• Hindalco

• Hongqiao

• Norsk Hydro

• Rio Tinto

• Rusal

• Vedanta

Electricity hubs (CY2027):

• MISO Indiana Hub

• Nord Pool

• OMIE Spain

• Vic NEM

• WA SWIS

Same market, other calendar year:

• Alcoa CY2028