This market resolves YES if Hindalco Industries's primary aluminum production for calendar year 2028 (January 1 – December 31, 2028) exceeds 1.4 million tonnes.

Settlement is May 31, 2029 — the close pushes ~5 months past year-end so the producer's full-year financial report and December 2028 monthly print are well-published before resolution.

Context. Hindalco Industries. FY24 1.34 Mt; brownfield expansion adding ~50–100 kt/yr through 2027–28. The 1.4 Mt strike for calendar 2028 sits near the run-rate; expansion ramp could push 2028 modestly above. Calendar-year resolution requires summing FY28 Q4 + FY29 Q1–Q3 quarterly press releases.

Resolution sources (priority order):

Hindalco Industries quarterly results and integrated annual report https://www.hindalco.com/investors/financials

Hindalco quarterly press releases https://www.hindalco.com/media/press-releases

International Aluminium Institute (IAI) primary aluminum statistics https://international-aluminium.org/statistics/primary-aluminium-production/

Reuters / Bloomberg / Argus aluminum coverage for cross-validation

Related markets across the cluster (calendar year 2028)

Upstream supply:

• Indonesia primary aluminum production

• Indonesia alumina capacity

• China alumina production

• Guinea bauxite exports

Producers (CY2028):

• Alcoa

• Century

• Chalco

• EGA

• Hongqiao

• Norsk Hydro

• Rio Tinto

• Rusal

• Vedanta

Electricity hubs (CY2028):

• MISO Indiana Hub

• Nord Pool

• OMIE Spain

• Vic NEM

• WA SWIS

Same market, other calendar year:

• Hindalco CY2027