This market resolves YES if Norsk Hydro's primary aluminum production for calendar year 2028 (January 1 – December 31, 2028) exceeds 2.0 million tonnes.

Settlement is May 31, 2029 — the close pushes ~5 months past year-end so the producer's full-year financial report and December 2028 monthly print are well-published before resolution.

Context. Norsk Hydro. ~2 Mt/yr capacity, mostly hydropower-fed; 2024 near capacity. The 2.0 Mt strike for 2028 reflects continued run-rate without new investment. Material deviation requires either Slovalco restart or capacity additions.

Resolution sources (priority order):

Norsk Hydro annual report and quarterly results https://www.hydro.com/en/global/investors/reports-and-presentations/

Norsk Hydro press releases https://www.hydro.com/en/global/media/news/

International Aluminium Institute (IAI) primary aluminum statistics https://international-aluminium.org/statistics/primary-aluminium-production/

Reuters / Bloomberg / Argus aluminum coverage for cross-validation

Related markets across the cluster (calendar year 2028)

Upstream supply:

• Indonesia primary aluminum production

• Indonesia alumina capacity

• China alumina production

• Guinea bauxite exports

Producers (CY2028):

• Alcoa

• Century

• Chalco

• EGA

• Hindalco

• Hongqiao

• Rio Tinto

• Rusal

• Vedanta

Electricity hubs (CY2028):

• MISO Indiana Hub

• Nord Pool

• OMIE Spain

• Vic NEM

• WA SWIS

Same market, other calendar year:

• Norsk Hydro CY2027