This market resolves YES if Norsk Hydro's primary aluminum production for calendar year 2027 (January 1 – December 31, 2027) exceeds 2.0 million tonnes.

Settlement is May 31, 2028 — the close pushes ~5 months past year-end so the producer's full-year financial report and December 2027 monthly print are well-published before resolution.

Context. Norsk Hydro is the largest primary aluminum producer in Europe, with smelters at Karmøy, Sunndal, Husnes, Årdal, Høyanger, and the joint-venture Qatalum (Qatar) and Slovalco (Slovakia, idled). Total primary aluminum production capacity is roughly 2 Mt/yr, mostly hydropower-fed. 2024 output stayed near capacity. The 2.0 Mt strike for 2027 reflects the run-rate without new investment.

Resolution sources (priority order):

Norsk Hydro annual report and quarterly results https://www.hydro.com/en/global/investors/reports-and-presentations/

Norsk Hydro press releases https://www.hydro.com/en/global/media/news/

International Aluminium Institute (IAI) primary aluminum statistics https://international-aluminium.org/statistics/primary-aluminium-production/

Reuters / Bloomberg / Argus aluminum coverage for cross-validation

Related markets across the cluster (calendar year 2027)

Upstream supply:

• Indonesia primary aluminum production

• Indonesia alumina capacity

• China alumina production

• Guinea bauxite exports

Producers (CY2027):

• Alcoa

• Century

• Chalco

• EGA

• Hindalco

• Hongqiao

• Rio Tinto

• Rusal

• Vedanta

Electricity hubs (CY2027):

• MISO Indiana Hub

• Nord Pool

• OMIE Spain

• Vic NEM

• WA SWIS

Same market, other calendar year:

• Norsk Hydro CY2028