This market resolves to the number of whole weeks of active military conflict between the United States and Iran, measured from February 27 (February 28 local time). For simplicity, week boundaries are counted at Friday midnights, Pacific Time. Resolution dates are listed for each category.
On February 28, 2026 (IRST), Israel and the United States launched joint airstrikes on Iran, and Iran responded with missile and drone attacks on Israel, US bases, and US allies in the region. President Trump said the war could last “four weeks.” Israel’s military chief said it is moving to the “next phase” after making "2,500 airstrikes." Fighting escalated further when Hezbollah fired rockets into Israel after vowing to revenge the attack that killed Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Khamenei.
Resolution is based on major news outlets such as CNN, Al Jazeera, AP, and Reuters, along with official US Department of Defense statements. The conflict is considered ongoing while coordinated strikes, missile or drone attacks, or other significant combat operations continue. It ends when a ceasefire is reached, or US and Iran declare a halt to hostilities, which lasts for 4 continuous weeks.
Update 2026-03-07 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Regarding the 4-week cessation of hostilities clause:
The resolution week count is measured from the start of the ceasefire/cessation period (not the end)
If a ceasefire/cessation begins but fails before 4 weeks pass, the time from that failed cessation will be added back to the total conflict duration
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Trump says U.S.-Israeli war with Iran is "very far ahead of schedule"
President Trump told CBS News that he believes the U.S.-Israeli war with Iran is "very far ahead of schedule."
"I think the war is very complete, pretty much," he said. "They have no navy, no communications, they've got no air force. Their missiles are down to a scatter. Their drones are being blown up all over the place, including their manufacturing of drones. If you look, they have nothing left. There's nothing left in a military sense."
@Gabrielle A quick lesson in Trump-ish
This
"I think the war is very complete, pretty much,"
Is him trying to say this
They have no navy, no communications, they've got no air force. Their missiles are down to a scatter. Their drones are being blown up all over the place, including their manufacturing of drones. If you look, they have nothing left. There's nothing left in a military sense.
With more oomph
@Gabrielle so if you're buying no on 9 weeks, give me at least a glimpse of what that looks like.
@Eliza Trump chickens out, decides to stop bombing Iran, and makes Israel stop bombing Iran. Iran decides that this is good enough and also stop attacking back.
Notably, the stock market seem to think this will happen, it went up fairly significantly once Trump made his statement, and the oil markets mostly recovered.
@Gabrielle Alright, I'm awaiting the next one-upping of the distraction level to pivot again. Will it be Greenland back on the menu or something new and exciting?
@Balasar Yeah, that is what Trump is promising: https://www.cnn.com/2026/03/06/politics/trump-cuba-marco-rubio-fall
@TimothyJohnson5c16 At this pace, by the end of the year the Nobel committee will have to decide if 9 wrongs make a right.
@Eliza Looks like Manifold only has it at 20-25%:
/summersantori/will-trump-attack-cuba-before-july
/Echale1Palo2Mas3Palo/will-the-united-states-conduct-a-mi
/SG2pSQ/the-us-takes-military-action-agains
@EvanDaniel Counting from the start of the period. Good question, thank you.
And if it starts, then fails before 4 weeks passes, that time will be re-added to the total.