This market resolves YES if Iran accepts and complies with the primary U.S. demands in the on going negotiations. Specifically, Iran must: Transfer its (allegedly) remaining 400 kg of enriched uranium or be found to not have any. Halt its nuclear weapons development. Restrict its ballistic missile program. End its financial, political and military support for groups such as Hezbollah, Hamas, and the Houthis. Market will resolve No if these demands fail to be met by the beginning of 2029

Unlikely — Manifold Markets prediction market estimates a 10% chance (16 traders, as of Mar 20, 2026).

Will Iran succumb to U.S. demands?

Will Iran succumb to U.S. demands?

Ṁ100Ṁ593

2028

10%

chance

ALL

This market resolves YES if Iran accepts and complies with the primary U.S. demands in the on going negotiations. Specifically, Iran must:

Transfer its (allegedly) remaining 400 kg of enriched uranium or be found to not have any.
Halt its nuclear weapons development.
Restrict its ballistic missile program.
End its financial, political and military support for groups such as Hezbollah, Hamas, and the Houthis.

Market will resolve No if these demands fail to be met by the beginning of 2029

Market context

Get

1,000

to start trading!