Will something happen in Iran this month?
12
Ṁ1kṀ622Mar 31
38%
chance
7
1H
6H
1D
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1M
ALL
This market resolves YES if any of these things happen:
100+ American boots on the ground
100+ American deaths from the war
Iran agrees to an unconditional surrender
A third country bombs Iran
Iran's government falls
Update 2026-03-11 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The 100+ boots on the ground criterion refers to 100+ military members physically on the ground (not in the air).
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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