derivative market: https://manifold.markets/Simon74fe/will-the-trump-nobel-peace-prize-20

They should give him a long list of demands that he has to meet to win the prize and then give him the prize for meeting those demands. The integrity of an already very questionable prize is a small price to pay to avoid worldwar three. I do not seriously expect they will do this though.

This should be <1% with Machado giving him the medal and now writing a letter to Norway saying he's not so interested in peace because he didn't get the prize. Total clown show

@ItsMe If Trump achieves something significant like ending the Ukraine war, they might still give it to him despite everything. There have been very controversial winners before

@Simon74fe nobody ever begged and tried to manipulate the award like this. He's literally wants to go to war because he didn't get the peace prize. This is beyond parody. And if they did give it to Trump, there would be serious questions about the integrity of the award.

@ItsMe I can imagine a scenario where the Nobel Prize Committee gives him a Nobel Peace Prize hoping it will calm down tensions.

@Vandell in that case the prize should go to the Nobel committee.

@Eliza Yeah, but not until Trump's out of office.

@ItsMe

serious questions about the integrity of the award

They gave it to Kissinger while he was bombing Cambodia, to Arafat who was involved in terrorist attacks, and to Obama for basically nothing.
Do you think giving it to Trump (assuming he achieves something positive this year) would be worse?

That's not my point; my point is if they give it to Trump people will say that they were blackmailed.

@ItsMe agreed. The more he whines about it the less likely he is to get it. That’s the main disanalogy with the previous war criminals who received the prize. As far as I know they were not antagonizing the committee like he is. The committee might be corruptible but they have some pride.

Alright so....

convince me NOT to make this bet? 6% seems low to me.

1. Roughly 20% of Nobel Peace Prizes go to heads of state or similar figures.

2. Among heads of state in 2026, Donald Trump appears to be the most prominent figure so far in the realm of international relations.

3. There is a lot of the year to go and Mr. Trump has claimed in the past that he wants to win this award. He may take additional actions around the world that he views as positive in his campaign to win this.

Is the counter-argument basically "They won't give it to a bad guy"?

@Eliza I wouldn't say "bad guy", but I would expect them to give it to somebody who has promoted the cause of peace rather than repeatedly acting to frustrate it.

@Eliza I strongly expect any one of the following is disqualifying in the eyes of socially democratic Norwegian technocrats: inciting an insurrection, killing hundreds of thousands of people by cutting USAID, torpedoing global free trade

At least there are maybe other candidates who have not done these things

Also: denying climate change, disregarding international law, trying to annex Greenland

@ItsMe and if they don't give it to him, what's he going to do? Say their names on TV?

@ItsMe Greenland is honestly the nail in the coffin; Norway is one of the NATO members who has committed tripwire forces to the defense of Greenland against the US.

Conceivably they could give it to him as a thank you if he formally drops his Greenland ambitions?

@Eliza place the bet, it will only climb to 10% and if the odds ever climb past that you can make profit already without fully comitting to a YES

@Eliza We're frothing at the mouth for you to make that trade.

@Eliza we've even sweetened the pot with limit orders from when you posted

@Quroe You were supposed to convince me not to do it, and you did a good job.

@moobunny that'd would be rewarding him for the threats, for fixing a problem he created

@Eliza I mean, do you give me express permission to lie to you? Are we playing Among Us now?

@MartinSundhaug But what if it meant the world avoided WWIII?

@Eliza I was also kind of tempted but I actually think this market is pretty reasonably priced at 5-6%. Not sure I’d buy yes or no shares at these odds. One thing to remember is that the Nobel selection committee is more conservative than you might think and also really anti-Russia. Trump taking a concerted effort to end the Ukraine-Russia conflict on terms unfavorable to Russia (perhaps through pledging security agreements for Ukraine or something) might be enough to get it done.

https://open.substack.com/pub/thebsdetector/p/the-nobel-committee-is-hungry-for?r=19iisj&utm_medium=ios&shareImageVariant=overlay

@bens The main reason I brought it up is because there is an incredible amount of liquidity available here at those prices and IMO the storylines for 2026 for this main character are going to be just as volatile as they have been in the past, maybe even more. Plus there is a lot of time to adjust your position after you acquire Yes shares.

Even in the 2025 edition where there was no plausible reason Trump should be awarded the prize, there was plenty of trading action in the 5ish percent range. By the end of 2026 he'll at least have "something" to point to.

Even 5000 mana on Yes would get you 73000 shares (6.8%). If the baseline moves closer to 10 you can profit pretty confidently.

@moobunny Should we then too award it to Putin, who threatened WW3 if we supported Ukraine?

@MartinSundhaug Would giving or withholding the prize actually sway Putin? Trump puts a lot of stock in the prize and in being seen as a peacemaker.

@brod but the number of terrible people who've won it before is non-negligible