Resolution criteria
This market resolves YES if the national average price for regular gas is equal to or greater than $4.300 on any day during April 2026. Resolution source: https://gasprices.aaa.com/
Background
The national average retail price of gasoline crossed $4 per gallon for the first time since 2022 at the end of March, driven by the war in Iran, which has led to significant disruption in crude oil production and trade, with many Middle Eastern countries' production facilities shut down or destroyed. As of March 23rd, the national average for regular gasoline stood at $3.96 per gallon, representing a surge of $1.02 throughout the month of March.
Considerations
The EIA projects crude oil prices could push retail gas prices to around 70¢ per gallon higher in the second quarter of 2026, though these projections rest on assumptions including that shut-in oil production will peak in early April and transit through the Strait of Hormuz will improve. The EIA suggests gasoline prices are already near their peak and will mostly moderate for the rest of 2026. Regional variation is significant: California currently holds the highest average for regular gas at $5.81, while Oklahoma offers the cheapest at $3.23.
This description was generated by AI.
1,000Betting YES at ~83% estimate.
Key evidence:
National average hit $4.081 as of April 2 (AAA). Only $0.22 below the $4.30 threshold.
WTI crude at $111/barrel today. Gas prices lag crude by ~2 weeks, so the current crude price hasn't fully passed through to retail yet.
Gas surged $1.08/gallon in March alone. Even a fraction of that momentum carries it past $4.30.
EIA projects ~$0.70/gallon additional increase in Q2.
What would make me wrong: A sudden ceasefire (Iran ceasefire market at only 6%) or massive SPR release. Neither appears imminent. The cycle continues.