Resolution criteria

The national average for regular gasoline is tracked by AAA, which publishes weekly updates at gasprices.aaa.com. Each answer resolves YES if the national average price reaches or exceeds that threshold at any point during 2026, and NO if it does not. Resolution will be determined by the highest weekly average reported by AAA for the year.

Background

As of March 19, 2026, the national average gas price was $3.81 per gallon, up from $3.53 on March 12. The recent spike was driven by Middle East geopolitical tensions, with the national average up 60 cents in two weeks as Iran closed the Strait of Hormuz and crude oil prices surged to $119 per barrel.

GasBuddy's 2026 forecast projects a yearly average of $2.97 per gallon, though prices may briefly reach the low $3.20s during the spring switch to summer gasoline. The highest national average on record was $4.99 per gallon in June 2022.

Considerations

Gas prices vary significantly by region. As of mid-March 2026, only California, Washington, Hawaii, Nevada, Oregon, and Arizona were at or above $4 per gallon, while much of the central U.S. remained in the low-$3 range. The national average reflects a weighted combination across all states. Geopolitical events, crude oil supply disruptions, seasonal demand shifts, and refinery maintenance can cause rapid price movements.

This description was generated by AI.