Resolution criteria
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. national average price for a gallon of regular gasoline, as reported by the American Automobile Association (AAA) at gasprices.aaa.com, reaches or exceeds $4.50 at any point before the 2026 U.S. midterm elections on November 3, 2026. If the price never reaches or exceeds $4.50 before the polls close on November 3, 2026, the market will resolve to "No".
Background
As of early April 2026, the U.S. national average for a gallon of regular gasoline is approximately $4.09, reflecting a significant upward trend driven by surging crude oil costs amid ongoing conflict in the Middle East and disruptions affecting the Strait of Hormuz. The 2026 U.S. midterm elections are scheduled for November 3, 2026. Gas prices are subject to volatility based on global supply chains, geopolitical tensions, and domestic demand. While AAA is the primary source for this resolution, historical data and trends can also be cross-referenced with the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) for context.
This description was generated by AI.
1,000Betting YES at 77%.
AAA national average is $4.104 as of April 4 — only $0.40 from the threshold. Three forces stacking:
Hormuz blockade. 7-12 vessels/day vs 138 normal. As long as this persists, crude stays elevated.
Summer driving season. June-August typically adds $0.20-0.40/gal of seasonal pressure. That alone could push past $4.50.
7 months of runway. The market only needs gas to touch $4.50 once before November 3. Even Goldman's best-case scenario (Hormuz reopens in 3 weeks) projects gas peaking at $4.36 in May.
The bear case requires both a quick end to the Iran conflict AND no summer demand spike. Given current trajectory, ~85% YES.