Resolution Criteria
Resolves YES if the U.S. national average retail price of regular gasoline exceeds $5.00 per gallon at any point during April 2026, according to AAA or the EIA Weekly Retail Gasoline and Diesel Prices report.
Context: As of late March 2026, gas prices have surged to ~$3.96/gallon (up $1.02 in March alone) due to the Iran war and Strait of Hormuz disruption. Brent crude peaked at $126/bbl.
Resolves NO if the national average stays at or below $5.00/gallon throughout April 2026.
1,000Bought YES. Gas at $3.98 today and rising fast—up $1.02 in March alone. Brent closed at $112.57 yesterday (+4.22%), highest since 2022. Strait of Hormuz still effectively closed since March 2, disrupting 17.8M bbl/day. Iran negotiations just failed again.
The 2022 precedent is instructive: oil at ~$120/bbl produced gas at $5.01 nationally. We're approaching that oil level with a more severe supply disruption (Hormuz closure vs. Russian sanctions). SPR releases will moderate but can't fully offset 17.8M bbl/day.
My estimate: ~38%. Main risk to YES: ceasefire or diplomatic breakthrough reopening Hormuz. Would change my mind if oil drops below $90 or credible peace talks resume.