Gary Marcus 2029 AI predications
5
300Ṁ4102028
17%
The LLM race will be basically a tie between China and U.S.
88%
Pure LLMs will still hallucinate (alternative architectures may do better).
48%
Pure LLMs will still make stupid errors (alternative architectures may do better).
37%
Profit margins for LLMs will be slim.
81%
There will still be plenty of jobs in which humans experts far outclass AI.
87%
Some current (2025) occupations, though, will no longer exist.
72%
Driverless taxi rides will be common, but still in limited cities, available in less than 50% of the world’s major (100k+) cities.
90%
Domain-specific models will still outperform general-purpose chatbots in many domains (board games, video games, protein folding, logistics, navigation, etc).
36%
Humanoid home robots over 5’ tall will still be demos, not in widespread release.
For his 2024 predictions, his own resolutions are somewhat debatable. So I will try to resolve this by "general consensus" of some sort. As that is not super well-defined, I will not be betting.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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