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Gary Marcus 2026 AI Predictions
31
Ṁ150Ṁ1.9k
Dec 31
82%
We won’t get to AGI in 2026 (or 7).
93%
Human domestic robots like Optimus and Figure will be all demo and very little product.
71%
No country will take a decisive lead in the GenAI “race”.
60%
Work on new approaches such as world models and neurosymbolic will escalate.
49%
2025 will be known as the year of the peak bubble, and also the moment at which Wall Street began to lose confidence in generative AI.
53%
Backlash to Generative AI and radical deregulation will escalate.

Related to this blog post: https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/six-or-seven-predictions-for-ai-2026

Resolution criteria:

  1. If Marcus gives a followup on his predictions, it will resolve to his recap of whether he was right in the blog post.

  2. If there is no followup blog post, I will ask the #1 AI model on the LMArena whether these were fulfilled, and it will resolve to that.

  3. If AI chatbots are illegal, non-functional, or otherwise not accessible in the US at EOY 2026, resolves to a poll. Will also resolve to a poll if LMArena shuts down.

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opened a Ṁ10,000 YES at 25% order

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opened a Ṁ5,000 YES at 20% order

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opened a Ṁ10,000 YES at 20% order

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Shameless promotion of this market for his 2029 predictions

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