From the famous AI 2027 report:
The authors state that predictions beyond 2026 are more uncertain, so I think keeping track on how the earlier predictions are going may tell us more about how the whole scenario works out.
Mainstream narrative shift refers to: "The mainstream narrative around AI has changed from “maybe the hype will blow over” to “guess this is the next big thing” "
Feel free to suggest questions. I will avoid questions that are impossible to resolve accurately (e.g does OpenAI have a secret Agent-1 model aiding their AI R&D)
OpenBrain refers to the placeholder name for the leading AI company in the US in that point in time. CCP refers to the Chinese Communist Party.
I am not sure how easy it will be to assess CAPEX and Power requirements for private companies and AI as a whole so I left these predictions out. But if I am convinced they can be resolved accurately I'll add them
1,000