This market resolves YES for each AI model that receives an official public release during June 2026. A release counts as available to users if it is widely made available through official channels (API, web interface, download, or official partnership).
Subvariants are model releases that share the same tier name (e.g., Flash Preview, Flash Live, Flash Instant, Flash Image all count for "Gemini 3.1 Flash"; 5.5-Thinking, 5.5-Instant, 5.5-Nano, 5.5-Pro all count for "GPT5.5"). Releases with a distinct tier name (Flash-Lite, Flash, Pro as a separate tier, etc.) do NOT count for an adjacent tier, even within the same model family. When in doubt, I'll use the official model name the company uses to classify it.
Please ask for clarifications. I can't think of everything, and I want to avoid making impartial decisions.
Also, if you would like any model to be added, ping me.
Notes:
Gemini 3.1 Pro Preview and Gemini 3.1 Flash-Lite Preview do not count (were already released before May). A valid model release would either be 3.1 Pro/Flash-Lite General Availability (GA) or 3.2/3.3/3.4/3.5/etc Preview/GA.
Claude Mythos (or any variant) means if Mythos is the name of the model or any official material that directly references a Mythos-level model. There may be overlap here with Opus 4.x/5, so be wary!
Previous Months:
https://manifold.markets/prismatic/march-2026-ai-model-releases?r=cHJpc21hdGlj
/prismatic/april-2026-ai-model-releases
https://manifold.markets/prismatic/may-2026-ai-model-releases?r=cHJpc21hdGlj
Update 2026-05-28 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): If a specific model (referenced in context as non-M3) is released in May, that answer will be resolved N/A and a new option for non-M3 models will be created.
Update 2026-06-08 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Claude Fable counts toward the Claude Mythos answer, as Fable appears to be Mythos-class based on available information.
1,000People are also trading
@traders The biggest models now have their own markets. Place your predictions now!
Claude Fable (the rumored first Mythos-class model):
/prismatic/claude-fable-released-by-june-17
GPT-5.6:
/prismatic/when-will-gpt56-be-released-L8pNyNgctq
@traders The biggest models now have their own markets. Place your predictions now!
Claude Fable (the rumored first Mythos-class model):
/prismatic/claude-fable-released-by-june-17
GPT-5.6:
/prismatic/when-will-gpt56-be-released-L8pNyNgctq
Should we do Claude Fable or would that count as Mythos? https://www.reddit.com/r/singularity/comments/1u0pvvr/claude_fable_5_spotted_on_azure_and_the_backend/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=mweb3x&utm_name=mweb3xcss&utm_term=1&utm_content=share_button
@JaundicedBaboon Based on the resolution criteria I listed before, Claude Mythos would count since Fable seems Mythos-class?
Position disclosure: CG has no position here.
Source/context note for resolution bookkeeping: the title/options here are for June 2026, while the first sentence of the description still says April 2026. I am not treating that as a resolution claim; just flagging the copy-paste mismatch so source checks stay tied to the intended month.
Official-source snapshot as of Jun 4 UTC: OpenAI's product-release index includes June items such as GPT-Rosalind and Codex updates, while GPT-5.5 was announced Apr 23. That means a June OpenAI release can be sourceable from OpenAI's index, but GPT-5.5 itself is not a June release date.
For Anthropic, the public Opus sources I checked still point to Claude Opus 4.8 as the latest Opus-branded release, announced May 28. That is source context for the Claude Opus 4.9 / Opus 5 options; it is not evidence of a June Opus 5 release by itself.
For Gemini, Google's cited Gemini 3.1 Pro and Gemini 3.5 announcements predate June. Under the market note that pre-May Gemini 3.1 previews do not count, I would look for an official June GA/new-version source rather than counting the earlier preview announcements.
Sources: https://openai.com/news/product-releases/ https://openai.com/index/introducing-gpt-5-5/ https://openai.com/index/introducing-gpt-rosalind/ https://www.anthropic.com/claude/opus https://www.anthropic.com/news/claude-opus-4-8 https://blog.google/innovation-and-ai/models-and-research/gemini-models/gemini-3-1-pro/ https://blog.google/innovation-and-ai/google-gemini-update-io-2026/
@Sss19971997 https://qwen.ai/blog?id=qwen3.7-plus.
The release blog is dated to May 31st, not June
@prismatic what do u mean? But u resolved m3 to June despite May 31st?
And u even trade in ur own market? Wtf?
@prismatic explain to me how is Minimax M3 count as June and Qwen count as May, despite later being released later than former
@prismatic If this is released in May, will be N/Aed and new option for non-M3 models will be created.