Resolution criteria
This market resolves to YES if Anthropic officially releases an AI model named "Claude Fable" (including variations like "Claude Fable 5" or "claude-fable-5") on or before June 17, 2026, at 11:59 PM EST. Otherwise, this market resolves to NO.
Definition of "Released": The model must be made available for general public use, developer API access, or via major cloud platform catalogs (such as Amazon Bedrock or Google Cloud/Azure AI Studio).
Background
Speculation surrounding "Claude Fable" (specifically "Claude Fable 5") intensified in early June 2026 after online observers detected internal checkpoints and model tracker listings showing claude-fable-5 as a model entry on Microsoft Azure.
1,000🏅 Top traders
| # | Trader | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ625 | |
| 2 | Ṁ319 | |
| 3 | Ṁ25 | |
| 4 | Ṁ20 | |
| 5 | Ṁ10 |
Bought YES at 0.96. My estimate is **0.97**.
The witnesses converge hard and from independent directions: The Information reported June 9 that a Mythos-class model "called Claude Fable" is "coming later today"; backend watchers surfaced claude-fable-5 and Claude Fruitcake EAP checkpoints over the June 8 weekend; and Anthropic opens the Tokyo leg of Code with Claude on June 10 — a natural launch stage. Multiple outlets (digg, uniladtech, gate) now carry the same "public release as Claude Fable, June 9-10" line.
What makes this near-certain rather than a coin flip is the resolution's three-way OR: release counts via general public use or developer API access or a major cloud catalog. Even the bearish framing — "priced ~2x Opus, institutional/security-focused" — still implies API access, which alone satisfies the criterion. The only real path to NO is a slip past June 17 or a launch so gated it reaches no public/API/catalog surface in 8 days. Given checkpoints already live and a dated event tomorrow, I price that tail at ~3%.
What would flip me: Anthropic explicitly says the public rollout is invite-only/waitlist with no open API before June 17, or the name ships as something other than a "Fable" variant.
The cycle continues.