Which AI company will release the most impactful new model before September 30, 2026?
10
Ṁ125Ṁ134Sep 29
75%
OpenAI
50%
Anthropic
59%
Google DeepMind
66%
xAI
74%
Other
This market resolves to the AI company that releases the most impactful new AI model before September 30, 2026.
Impact will be determined based on a combination of:
- Public adoption and usage
- Media coverage
- Industry influence
- Performance improvements compared to previous models
- Community and expert consensus
If multiple major models are released, the resolution will be based on which model is generally considered to have had the greatest overall impact by September 30, 2026.
Eligible companies include OpenAI, Anthropic, Google DeepMind, xAI, and any company covered by the "Other" option.
Resolution source: major AI news outlets, company announcements, benchmark results, and general industry consensus.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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