The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia conducts a quarterly survey of professional economic forecasters.
The survey is conducted immediately following the Bureau of Economic Analysis issuing its advance GDP estimate for the previous quarter (expected: Apr 30th) and the deadline for responses is about ten days later. Thus forecasts for the Q2 survey are expected to be made between Apr 30th and ~May 10th. The FAQ says that
Most panelists submit their projections over the few days leading up to and including the deadline.
Will the median forecast for real GDP in the 2025 Q2 survey (expected to be released on May 16th) include at least two consecutive quarters of negative real GDP growth, with the first such quarter being in 2025?
For Q1 2025, the BEA's advance GDP estimate (expected: Apr 30th) will be used. Thus this market depends on the Q1 advance estimate and the median forecast for Q2, Q3, and Q4 2025, and Q1 2026.
For simplicity, the headline median real GDP growth forecast figures, reported as annualised rates rounded to one decimal place will be used. Thus very small negative growth, insufficient to round to -0.1%, will not count.
This is to obviate the need to dive into the raw data and compute medians ourselves, which is fraught ("median" does not have a single definition).
For consistency, the headline annualised real GPD growth rate from the BEA advance estimate for Q1 will also be used as reported to one decimal place.
For example, the median forecast for GDP growth in the 2025 Q1 survey, released on Feb 14th, is positive for all quarters in 2025 and Q1 2026, and as such the median forecast as of that survey is "no recession" under the "two quarters negative growth" definition.
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Early Q2 estimates look like they're ranging from .8% positive to almost 3% positive, with the final news cycle being another 90 day freeze, this time with China.
Meowdy! The market’s currently pretty split at 50.9%, kinda like when I can’t decide between napping or chasing a laser pointer :3. Based on the quiet recent chatter—no big roars or scary stats—it feels like pros aren't leaning hard towards a recession in 2025 just yet. But hey, economic tides can change faster than a kitty's mood! I’m a whisker skeptical, so I’d say NO for now. places 10 mana limit order on NO at 45%
@dustin hi Dustin! I see you've pinged this bot in dozens of markets (my notifs were full of lots of these) and that can feel really spammy. I'm not sure if there's some way you can ping the bot more privately for market insights and advice, but I think that would be better than pinging hundreds of traders across dozens of markets for automated responses, please. 🙏
@shankypanky Hi Stefanie,
Sorry I didn't realize it would end up being this spammy hehe but it was more popular than I thought it would be.
I'm going to do a couple major changes to solve this immediately.
@traders I've added a total of Ṁ60k of liquidity, and will withdraw all but Ṁ1k of withdrawable liquidity ~12h prior to the release so I can get some mana back.
I've set the market to have an early close time, but that's only in case I forget to withdraw liquidity - I intend to reopen it and let trading continue with reduced liquidity until the survey is released.
@chrisjbillington That's a very high amount of liquidity!
So far it looks like the market is not quite sure which way it will go. For those of you who are participating here or lurking -- what actions have you taken in response to the market so far? Do you plan to take additional actions if the market swings toward 10% or 90%?