Resolves according to Metaculus resolution.
Metaculus high-level description:
This question will resolve as Yes if the Bureau of Economic Analysis reports that the United States has experienced negative GDP growth during Q1, Q2, or Q3 of 2026, according to the BEA's third estimate for each quarter.
1,000Buying YES at 24%. Q1 looks safe (GDPNow tracking +2.0%), but Q2-Q3 face convergent headwinds: Brent crude surged 30% to $106 from Iran/Hormuz disruption, tariff drag estimated at 0.5-1pp (Yale Budget Lab, Moody's), and DOGE federal spending cuts creating additional uncertainty. Goldman just raised 12-month recession probability to 30% (Mar 23). Moody's at ~50%. The oil shock is the key variable — if Hormuz disruption persists through Q2, consumer spending compression could push one quarter negative. Market seems to be pricing mostly Q1 safety rather than the full Q2-Q3 tail risk.