Resolution criteria

A recession is defined as a significant decline in economic activity that is spread across the economy and lasts more than a few months. The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER)—an independent nonprofit organization—is generally credited with determining recession start and end dates in the United States. This market resolves YES if the NBER declares that a recession occurred at any point between January 1, 2026 and December 31, 2029. It resolves NO if no recession is declared during this period.

Resolution will be determined by the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee, which officially dates recessions retrospectively based on monthly economic indicators including employment, income, consumption, and industrial production.

Background

Deloitte forecasts real GDP decline of 0.2% in 2027 and growth of just 0.8% in 2028, with a stronger recovery expected in 2029 and 2030. J.P. Morgan estimates a 35% chance of recession in 2026, while Bloomberg's economist survey rates the likelihood of a downturn at 30%. A drop in AI-related spending could be enough to push the economy into a recession, as other parts of the economy are more strained and will not be able to make up for the loss of AI-related economic activity.

Considerations

The NBER dates recessions and expansions with a lag that can be many months after the recession began. This means a recession occurring in 2029 may not be officially declared until 2030 or later. For resolution purposes, the market will resolve based on NBER's official dating whenever it is announced, even if that announcement occurs after December 31, 2029.