In what year will the next US recession begin?
17
Ṁ185Ṁ1.3k2030
0.8%
2025
58%
2026
14%
2027
10%
2028
13%
2029
4%
2030 or later
This market asks when the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) will determine the next US recession began. The NBER is the official arbiter of US business cycles and typically announces recession start dates months after they actually begin.
This market will resolve to the option that corresponds to when the NBER declares the recession started, not when they make the announcement.
Resolution will be based on official NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee announcements: https://www.nber.org/research/business-cycle-dating
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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