Resolves to the percentage of the seats controlled by the GOP after the 2026 midterms. The tiebreak of the VP is irrelevant for the purposes of this market.
For independents, I'll aim for a commonsense interpretation of which party they are associated with. As a default source, I'll check 270towin, and see how they report it. Currently, they report "53 Republicans and 47 Democrats (including two independents)", so the Democrat share would be 47%, as the commonsense interpretation is that the two independents are with the Democrats. I don't expect this edge case to arise—there are no independents associated with the GOP at the moment, but this outlines how I'd handle the case if that changes. Feel free to ask me about any specific candidate.
1,000People are also trading
Noting that AMM shares accrue interest, you can probably do well by dumping a lot of mana into the AMM. Which would be neat in its own right. And would probably have you make out just fine if you close the market on election eve, or maybe pull liquidity out then, depending on implementation details that I haven't checked.
@EvanDaniel under the interest payment system, i am no longer indifferent between mana stored in the AMM & mana stored in investments, so i'm disincentivized to park my mana there, no matter how safe it is. unfortunate change!
beyond that, i don't think high liquidity is very well suited to this market. bettors should be fairly price sensitive, and want to place very large bets, and you need an enormous amount of AMM liquidity for that to work (without too much slippage). OTOH, it's very well suited to limit orders—the fair price won't change substantially any time soon, so there's lots of time to find a suitable counterparty.
@EvanDaniel interesting! if that's true, then i'd be much more eager to do this (although it also implies that there's truly zero distinction between balances and what earns interest)
ok
How are you counting independents? I assume Osborn isn't included. What if Osborn situation was reversed or this was a market about Dem seats?
I know detailed trading isn't the motivation for creating this market, but if you put up some high liquidity limit orders I might see if my bot can make use of is as a useful hedge :)
@EvanDaniel very fair points—i picked GOP because their current member definitions are cleaner, but that could change.
i'll add this to the description, but i'll likely aim for a commonsense interpretation of party identification, with e.g., 270towin.com/2026-senate-election/ as the starting source. 270towin reports "53 Republicans and 47 Democrats (including two independents)", and if they reported an independent as part of their republican total, I'd count it.