Resolves YES if after the 2026 United States elections members of the Republican party have won at least 51 seats in the Senate, or 50 seats with a Republican Vice President for tie-breaking purposes. Resolves NO otherwise.
If a politically independent/third-party senator is elected, they would count as a Republican for the purposes of this market if they are widely expected to caucus with the Republican party.
1,000People are also trading
@MichaelBlume If you want to take this up to 60%, which of these states do you think is/are mispriced? https://manifold.markets/election?r=UXVyb2U
2026 Maine Senate Race
Graham Platner: 46% (-3)
Susan Collins (inc): 45% (+3)
2026 Maine Senate Race Among Independents
Susan Collins (inc): 43%
Graham Platner: 37% Quantus poll | 6/9-6/11
2026 Maine Senate Polling Averages Per Decision Desk
Graham Platner: 47.2% (-2.7)
Susan Collins: 45.1% (+3.4)
Texas, Alaska, Ohio
@AndrewG when do you decide to resolve? If a republican changes to caucus with dems on 30 November will that mean democrats win if it takes them from 50 to 51
Trump removes Election Assistance Commission members, report says
