For whatever reason (ie, "stop the illegals from voting!"), will ICE be deployed in a meaningful fashion to or around polling stations during the 2026 midterm elections?
Resolution criteria
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled for November 3, 2026. This market resolves YES if ICE is deployed in a meaningful fashion to or around polling stations on or immediately before Election Day. "Meaningful" means visible, coordinated presence that could reasonably be characterized as enforcement operations targeting polling locations—not incidental encounters or routine operations unrelated to voting sites.
Resolution will be determined by credible reporting from major news outlets, election monitoring organizations, or official statements from election officials, DHS, or ICE confirming deployment. Isolated incidents or unverified social media claims do not constitute meaningful deployment. The market resolves NO if no such deployment occurs.
Update 2026-01-20 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator has clarified that deployment must feel like a concerted effort to suppress polling stations, not just a single isolated incident. While no exact number of polling stations is specified, the deployment must be substantial enough to be characterized as such by news reports.
1,000@digory I would argue it has to feel like a concerted effort to suppress polling stations. I don't have a way of giving you an exact number, but if news reports are strong enough, that should suffice.