According to https://apnews.com/article/ice-milan-cortina-olympics-immigration-enforcement-us-110fa4b2066e1fb920dba2a71c3a89e0
unit of U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement would be present during the upcoming Winter Games
but
“Obviously, ICE does not conduct immigration enforcement operations in foreign countries,″ the Department of Homeland Security said in a statement
Will they?
Will resolve Yes if there are reports from serious news agencies that ICE agents in Italy were indeed involved in immigration enforcement operations
Will resolve NA if ICE agents won't be present at 2026 winter olympics in Milan (according to openly available data)
Otherwise will resolve No
I will not bet on this market
Update 2026-02-04 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Cooperation with Italian authorities counts: The market will resolve YES if ICE agents cooperate with Italian Police/Carabinieri in physical enforcement of immigration law (either US or Italian) on Italian territory during the Olympics.
Immigration data sharing does NOT count towards YES resolution.
Update 2026-02-04 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): An ICE agent being deported/expelled from Italy does NOT count as YES - the ICE agents must be actively enforcing immigration law, not being subject to it themselves.
Update 2026-02-04 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Specific examples that would resolve YES:
ICE agents being present on any raids (immigration-related)
ICE agents detaining people on immigration-related grounds
Any cooperation between ICE agents and Italian Police/Carabinieri involving physical enforcement of immigration law on Italian territory during the Olympics
Update 2026-02-04 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Deportations without due process count as YES: If ICE agents participate in deportation activities without due process, this will count as immigration enforcement operations and resolve YES.
Note: The creator clarified that the deaths of Renee and Alex were not considered immigration enforcement on their own, but the raids were immigration control related.
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This seems nonsensical. Does this apply to ICE enforcing US immigration law, detaining people for being illegally in the US while they are in Italy? Or to ICE enforcing Italian immigration law, which they might get shot in the face by Carabinieri if they try?
Can you please give a specific, concrete example of how this market could possibly resolve YES?
@BrunoParga any of your examples would resolve to YES. As well as any cooperation between ICE agents and Italian Police/Carabineri which involves physical enforcement of immigration law (either US or Italian) on Italian territory during the Olympics. Things like immigtation data sharing won't count.
@AntonKurkin you didn't give concrete, specific examples.
If Italy decides to kick an ICE agent out and he doesn't resist, does that count as cooperation in enforcing Italian immigration law?
@BrunoParga nice corner case. no I won't count that as a YES. the ICE agens have to be enforcing the immigration law.
@AntonKurkin any concrete examples?
Because, like, you know that American law doesn't apply in Italy right?
I mean, one of the "examples" I gave you is literally self-contradictory - you can't remove someone from America if they are not in America to begin with. Is that much clear to you?
@AntonKurkin other questions that traders might want to know, to decide whether to invest... Do you consider that when ICE murdered Renee and Alex, were they "enforcing the law"? When they deport people without the due process defined in the law (starting with the highest law in the land), is that "enforcing immigration law"?
@BrunoParga Sure I know that it doesn't apply.
Ah, I read it like if they would revoke a permit to stay in/return to US
as for specific examples, ICE agents being present on any raids, ICE agents detaining people (on immigration related grounds). things like that.
I feel like 7% is too high (especially during olympics), but with Italy's immigration problems and their anti-immigrant government, I wouldn't rule that out completely.
@BrunoParga nice follow up. I would say that in my opinion deaths of Renee and Alex weren't about immigration enforcement on their own. but I would say that the raids were immigration control related (though I have my doubts whether it's only about that)
I would say that deportation of people without a due process is still an immigration enforcement operation, so I would consider participation of ICE agents in such activities as a ground for YES resolution
Just in case, I'm not a US resident nor citizen, I live in Europe (and not in Italy).
@AntonKurkin it is debatable whether Italy has "immigration problems"; it is unquestionable that them waiving their sovereign rights by giving ICE chuds police power in their territory would be a humiliation they haven't seen since the battle of Teutoburg Forest in 9 CE or the missed penalty kick in the 1994 soccer world cup final.
@AntonKurkin and saying that a lower law can be validly enforced while violating a higher law is... a choice.
Anyway, my due diligence in deciding whether to trade in this market is complete. Thank you for the clarifications and good luck to you and your traders!