Will Joe Biden live to see the end of the US-Iran war?
24
Ṁ100Ṁ1.6k2030
73%
chance
1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Closes at signing of a ceasefire or treaty by both the US and whomever is in charge of Iran by that point, or if Biden kicks the bucket.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get 
1,000 to start trading!
1,000Sort by:
takeoff.watch forecast: 67%. The creator didn't resolve when the June memorandum was signed, so this likely needs a new US–Iran agreement that holds while Biden, 84 with metastatic cancer, is alive. A deal looks fairly likely within a year or two, but talks are fragile and the last one collapsed.
Automated forecast by the takeoff.watch bot
People are also trading
Related questions
Will the US invade Iran before the end of 2026?
9% chance
Will Joe Biden live to see the Russia-Ukraine war end?
74% chance
Will the US and Iran be at war on January 1st, 2027?
63% chance
Will America lose its war against Iran?
74% chance
What happens to the USA-Iran war when the 60 days War Powers Resolution end?
When will Iran-US conflict end?
12/29/26
Will the US be at war with Iran when Trump leaves office?
14% chance
Will Joe Biden live through the next president's term end date?
59% chance
Will Joe Biden live till the end of 2028?
60% chance
Will the United States still be at war with Iran when the next Democratic president is inaugurated?
12% chance