MANIFOLD
When will Iran-US conflict end?
August 15, 2026
11%
2026 Q1
40%
2026 Q2
19%
2026 Q3-Q4
13%
2027 Q1-Q2
9%
2027 Q3-Q4
8%
2028+

The conflict will be considered ended when most news media report it as being over. No formal peace treaty or ceasefire is required.

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What counts as "end"? Does there need to be a formal peace treaty or ceasefire, or is a de facto end enough?

@EvanDaniel when most news media report it as being over

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