Will the US be at war with Iran when Trump leaves office?

MANIFOLD

Ṁ1kṀ2.1k

2029

18%

chance

ALL

At war includes:

US troops on the ground in Iran
Ongoing strikes by either side
Strait of Hormuz closed to most traffic, and US Naval forces in the area
Routine US overflights or Iran, such as an enforced no-fly zone

This is based on the status at the time Trump leaves office, not before; if the war pauses and then resumes and is ongoing when Trump leaves, this will resolve Yes, pause notwithstanding.

Resolution will be based on a consensus of credible reporting, relevant Wikipedia articles, and official government statements.

Update 2026-03-07 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - If Trump dies in office (e.g. assassination), that counts as leaving office for resolution purposes
- If the assassinating party is Iran, this would likely mean the US is at war with Iran at the time of leaving office, resolving Yes

Market context

Get

1,000

to start trading!

People are also trading

Will the US invade Iran before the end of 2026?

35% chance

Will the US and Iran be at war on January 1st, 2027?

15% chance

Will Trump declare the Iran war to be won in the next month?

58% chance

Will Trump abandon the Iran war?

37% chance

Will the US invade Iran's Kharg Island by the end of 2026?

39% chance

Will US president Donald Trump visit Iran in 2026

6% chance

When will the US and Iran be at war? (unlinked, permanent)

Will the United States lose the war against Iran?

50% chance

When will Iran-US conflict end?

8/15/26

🇺🇸🇮🇷 American boots on the ground in Iran by the end of Trump's term?

Sort by:

I think your war criteria are a good start, but how do you know when it ends?

Sometimes conflicts become semi-frozen or taper off and it can be hard to tell.

@LarsOsborne It's definitely complex, and I think any criteria will be hard to make exact. I'm inclined to go with things that approximate "actively shooting" rather than "sitting in nearby bases staring at each other", but there's stuff in between those as well. Suggestions welcome.

@EvanDaniel my best suggestion would be to extend the close time to June 2029, with the option to resolve earlier.

What if the war stops and none of the listed things are true and it is considered mostly resolved, but then Iran assassinates Trump.

Also do we use Kalshi rules here? If he dies does it resolve to the percentage it sat at before he died?

@Eliza Kalshi rules are dumb, if he dies that counts as leaving office.

I think a reasonable interpretation is that if someone (state sanctioned) assassinates or kidnaps your President, you're at war with them at least in the brief window surrounding that incident.