MANIFOLD
How many people will die as a part of the 2025-26 Iranian protests before March 20th (up to 5k)?
12
Ṁ275Ṁ2.1k
Mar 20
5,435 deaths
expected
0.2%
Under 1,000
0.1%
1,000 - 1,499
0.3%
1,500 - 1,999
0.3%
2,000 - 2,499
0.3%
2,500 - 2,999
0.5%
3,000 - 3,499
0.3%
3,500 - 3,999
0.2%
4,000 - 4,499
0.5%
4,500 - 5,000
97%
Over 5,000

Resolution criteria

Resolves by the same standards as this market but with different buckets.

Market context
Middle East
Iran
Death
Get
Ṁ1,000
to start trading!

People are also trading

Sort by:

Current count appears to be 4,902.

bought Ṁ50 YES

The Sunday Times reports 16.5k

https://www.thetimes.com/world/middle-east/article/iran-young-protesters-news-nsdztp5t2

bought Ṁ10 YES

It's over 25000 already.

Resolve please

@Alva This would not yet resolve as over 5,000 per the conditions of the original market as it currently stands. Condition a) does not fulfill 5,000+, so per condition b), the current count is 2,615.

bought Ṁ50 NO

https://www.reuters.com/world/china/iranian-mp-warns-greater-unrest-urging-government-address-grievances-2026-01-13/

People are also trading

© Manifold Markets, Inc.•Terms•Privacy