Will the Iranian protests end tragically?

MANIFOLD

Ṁ1kṀ6.6k

Dec 31

70%

chance

ALL

This market resolves YES if, as of December 31, 2026, all of the following conditions are met:

- The current wave of protests (beginning December 28, 2025) has substantially subsided

- The Islamic Republic system of government remains intact

- Cumulative protester deaths reached or exceeded 1,500 according to credible sources (Amnesty International, Iran Human Rights, HRANA, or Reuters)

Resolves NO if:

- The Islamic Republic fell or underwent fundamental constitutional change, OR

- Protests subsided with fewer than 1,500 protester deaths

Update 2026-01-20 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator has clarified that they now consider this market to function as an inverse of the "will Iran's regime fall in 2026" market. The primary resolution criterion is whether the Islamic Republic system of government remains intact as of December 31, 2026. The creator will wait until the end of 2026 to resolve, regardless of when protests may have subsided.

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Sad but realistic analysis:

The West wants a revolution in Iran. What’s actually happening is a counterrevolution—and history shows those are usually doomed to fail.

Niall Ferguson: The Myth of Revolution in Iran

@SamuelKnoche How do you define protests "substantially subsiding"? As far as I know, there has been very little to zero protesting since 14 January.

@ezra290 I think the only criteria for Yes that still matters is "as of December 31, 2026 [...] The Islamic Republic system of government remains intact", so I'll wait until the end of the year.

As stated in a previous comment, I now consider this an inverse /SaviorofPlant/will-irans-regime-fall-in-2026 market.

"CTP-ISW recorded zero protests on January 15, which marks the second consecutive day that CTP-ISW has not recorded any protest activity in Iran."

https://x.com/i/status/2012007043415122041

bought Ṁ50 YES

https://www.nytimes.com/2026/01/13/world/middleeast/iran-protester-deaths.html?smid=nytcore-android-share

"A senior Iranian health ministry official, speaking on the condition of anonymity, said about 3,000 people had been killed across the country but sought to shift the blame to “terrorists” fomenting unrest. The figure included hundreds of security officers, he said.

Another government official, also speaking on the condition of anonymity, said he had seen an internal report that referred to at least 3,000 dead, and added that the toll could climb."