Skip to main content
MANIFOLD
Which incumbent U.S. representatives will lose their primaries?
29
Ṁ725Ṁ16k
Sep 1
83%
John Larson (CT-01)
62%
Stephen Lynch (MA-08)
22%
Jared Moskowitz (FL-25)
20%
Debbie Wasserman-Schultz (FL-20)
18%
Randy Fine (FL-06)
Resolved
YES
Julie Johnson (D-TX-33)
Resolved
YES
Al Green (D-TX-18)
Resolved
YES
Thomas Massie (R-KY-4)
Resolved
YES
Dan Goldman (D-NY-10)
Resolved
YES
Adriano Espaillat (D-NY-13)
Resolved
YES
Diana DeGette (CO-01)
Resolved
YES
Andy Ogles (TN-05)
Resolved
YES
Shri Thanedar (MI-13)
Resolved
N/A
Steve Cohen (D-TN-9)
Resolved
N/A
David Scott (D-GA-13)

In states such as California, Washington, and Alaska, with top 2 or 4 primaries, candidates are considered to win their primary if they advance to the general election.

Market context
US Politics
Elections
2026 US Congressional Elections
Democratic Party
U.S. Congress
Get
Ṁ1,000
to start trading!

People are also trading

Which US Senators and Candidates will win?
How many of these democrats will be elected senators in November?
How many House Democrats will lose a primary challenge in 2026?
How many incumbent U.S. Representatives will lose renomination in the 2026 election cycle?
18
How many incumbent governors will lose renomination in the 2026 election cycle?
Which of these Democratic senators that prevented the March 2025 Gov. shutdown lose their next primary?
Will any Senate Democrat lose a primary in 2026?
19% chance
Which Texas US House Districts will a Democrat win?
Which incumbent Representative or Senator will have the lowest WAR in the 2026 Midterm US Congressional Elections?
Will any member of the squad who lost their 2024 election get elected to the House of Representatives by 2026?
59% chance
Sort by:
bought Ṁ228 YES

@TW5z0p Shri and Ogles both lost

@mods

@TW5z0p shri lost

@TW5z0p can resolve

bought Ṁ157 NO

@TW5z0p resolves no thanks

@TW5z0p Thomas Massie lost his primary to Ed Gallrein

Bet on the IN-04 primary here:

People are also trading

Which US Senators and Candidates will win?
How many of these democrats will be elected senators in November?
How many House Democrats will lose a primary challenge in 2026?
How many incumbent U.S. Representatives will lose renomination in the 2026 election cycle?
18
How many incumbent governors will lose renomination in the 2026 election cycle?
Which of these Democratic senators that prevented the March 2025 Gov. shutdown lose their next primary?
Will any Senate Democrat lose a primary in 2026?
19% chance
Which Texas US House Districts will a Democrat win?
Which incumbent Representative or Senator will have the lowest WAR in the 2026 Midterm US Congressional Elections?
Will any member of the squad who lost their 2024 election get elected to the House of Representatives by 2026?
59% chance