Resolution Criteria

The US-Iran war began on February 28, 2026, when the United States and Israel launched surprise airstrikes on multiple sites across Iran. This market resolves YES if the war ends (defined as a cessation of major military operations between the US/Israel and Iran, whether through ceasefire, negotiated settlement, or de facto stalemate). It resolves NO if the war continues beyond the specified end date. Resolution will be determined by credible reporting from major news outlets (Reuters, AP, BBC, Al Jazeera, CNN) confirming either an official end to hostilities or a sustained period of no major military operations.

Background

The conflict began when the United States and Israel launched surprise airstrikes on multiple sites and cities across Iran, killing Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and several other Iranian officials. Iran responded with missile and drone strikes against Israel, US bases, and US-allied countries in the Middle East. The war has entered its fourth week, with more than 1,400 people reported killed in Iran. The International Energy Agency warned that the war is causing the "largest supply disruption in the history of the global oil market".

Considerations

An Iranian source told CNN that there had been "outreach" between the US and Tehran and that Iran is willing to listen to "sustainable" proposals to end the war, while Israel and Iran continue to trade strikes. US President Donald Trump said Washington was holding discussions with Tehran and suggested a broader agreement could be reached, but Iranian officials rejected the claims, accusing the US of trying to buy time as it deploys more forces to the region. The path to resolution remains unclear, with conflicting statements from both sides about the status of negotiations.

This description was generated by AI.