Resolves to my personal judgement when sufficient information is released. I will not bet in this market. Resolves based on the state of information at market close (Nov. 9).
For reference, the Trump shooter would have been "indiscernible."
Update 2025-09-10 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - Political lean will be judged on the US political spectrum.
Update 2025-09-10 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - Transgender identity is not a political lean and is not necessarily sufficient on its own to determine resolution.
Pro-Palestinian activism alone is not inherently sufficient to determine political lean, but could have the potential to.
Additional evidence beyond these attributes will be required to resolve.
Update 2025-09-11 (PST) : If a culprit is arrested, but there's widespread likelihood that they're not the real perpetrator, this will only resolve if I'm 90% sure they got the right guy, and may resolve "no culprit caught" otherwise.
If their political lean is too wrapped up in, say, state-sponsorship, being a spy or secret agent, some baffling edge case like that, this will probably resolve "indiscernible."
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@Panfilo ya but there are probably like several dozen Tyler Robinsons in Utah, and he would've been, like 17 years old?
@bens it's from the same area as his voter registration, although a different zip code (84790 vs 84780)
@Balasar I think you need to look at all the messages. Clearly this was just an edgelord who wrote memes on the casings, either just for the sake of shock or as a red herring.