Will another influencer be killed in a politically motivated attack by Sept 10. 2026?
To be considered an influencer, for the purposes of this market, they have to be primarily known as a media pundit or a social media influencer/content creator and/or their political power must primarily derive from their position as an influencer, not from an elected seat, family or an influential career in politics.
A politically active current or former state-, or higher level politician (i.e. Trump, Obama, Newsom, AOC etc.), would be highly unlikely to qualify, even if they otherwise did fulfill all the requirements below. Also unlikely to qualify would be a famous person mostly known for their work portfolio outside of their social media influence (i.e. Taylor Swift, Gal Gadot etc.) even if they were politically outspoken and specifically targeted for that reason.
To be considered a politically motivated murder, the police reports and/or the media consensus has to show that the person was murdered specifically due to their political views/influence.
Rough figures for the influencer notability requirement:
Primarily known as a social media influencer, a creator, or a media pundit with with any one of these:
500k Youtube subscribers
100k Twitter/Bluesky/Instagram/Threads followers
1M Tiktok folllowers
OR
Notable (main or supporting host, appearing in most episodes) character in a mainstream or alternative media podcast/show/panel with any one of these:
1M Youtube subscribers and 100k+ views per episode
250k Twitter/Bluesky/Instagram/Threads followers
3M Tiktok folllowers
Persons with lower numbers are considered if they are ubiquitously known, especially if they are clearly notable, but lack a popular social media presence due to being deplatformed and/or having amassed their following on alternative platforms (i.e. Nick Fuentes etc.). .
I will try to be as fair and objective as possible.
I will not bet on this market due to the subjectivity of the definitions politically motivated and notable influencer.
1,000@traders To avoid egregious misunderstandings, I tidied up the description and clarified the definition of influencer to omit famous people and political figures with a large social media following, whose political power isnt primarily derived from their social media following, or who aren't primarily known for their work in social media content creation.
This market has always been specifically about content creators in the same media sphere Kirk existed in, not about actors/singers/athletes/politicians etc. who would qualify for the broader classification of influencer and pass the social media following requirements outlined in the description.
@traders To avoid egregious misunderstandings, I tidied up the description and clarified the definition of influencer to omit famous people and political figures with a large social media following, whose political power isnt primarily derived from their social media following, or who aren't primarily known for their work in social media content creation.
This market has always been specifically about content creators in the same media sphere Kirk existed in, not about actors/singers/athletes/politicians etc. who would qualify for the broader classification of influencer and pass the social media following requirements outlined in the description.