MANIFOLD
Which method(s) will the police use to find Charlie Kirk's shooter?
35
Ṁ400Ṁ2.7k
2100
99%
Associate/informant provides suspect’s name
86%
Security/doorbell camera footage leading to identification
85%
DNA match from evidence
82%
Suspect voluntarily surrenders
73%
Social media post or online confession leads to identification
61%
Ballistics trace links weapon to suspect
57%
Fingerprint match from evidence
52%
Public tip to police (hotline/Crimestoppers)
50%
Facial recognition match
15%
Cellphone location/records analysis identifies suspect
12%
International cooperation
2%
Automated license plate reader or traffic camera hit
1.4%
Identified while seeking medical treatment
1.4%
Undercover operation or sting identifies suspect
1%
Identified during a routine traffic stop or unrelated arrest
1%
Not found by police in 2025

  • Update 2025-09-12 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - All methods employed by the police will count toward resolution.

    • If multiple methods are used, each such method will resolve Yes.

    • Example: DNA match from evidence resolves Yes even if identification came from a tip.

Market context
US Politics
Crime
Charlie Kirk shooter
Charlie Kirk
Assassinations
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bought Ṁ140 NO

some of these can resolve?

bought Ṁ20 YES

I pushed surrenders voluntarily way up, as it sounded like from reporting i heard that he was talked into telling police where he was and was arrested without incident.

Which if true I would consider voluntarily surrendering.

@Yakushi12345 💯

@traders Please be aware that all methods used by the police to find/identify/confirm Charlie Kirk's shooter will resolve Yes in this market. As clarified in my previous reply to @wolf, this includes as example evidence later used in court.

How are we defining "find" for the purpose of this market?

E.G. if the shooter is identified by a tip to the police, but DNA evidence is later key to prosecution in court, how does "DNA match from evidence" resolve?

@wolf All the methods employed by the police will count.

In your example, "DNA match from evidence" resolves Yes.

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