Which of the Manifold rated Lean and Likely R senate races will Republicans win?

Ṁ1.6kṀ1.1k

Nov 3

35%

Republicans win all of the 4 races, KS,NE, MS, SC

20%

Republicans win NE, MS and SC only

14%

Republicans win MS and SC only

12%

Republicans win KS, SC and MS only

Republicans win none of the 4 races, KS, NE, MS, SC

Republicans win MS only

1.1%

Republicans win SC only

1.1%

Republicans win KS and MS only

1.1%

Republicans win KS and SC only

1.1%

Republicans win NE and MS only

1.1%

Republicans win NE and SC only

1.1%

Republicans win, KS, NE, and SC only

1.1%

Republicans win KS, NE and MS only

1.1%

Republicans win NE only

Resolves YES to the ONE correct answer, based on which races Republicans win of Kansas(KS), Nebraska(NE), Mississippi (MS) and South Carolina(SC) for US Senate in 2026.

As of Market Creation, Manifold currently rates these 4 races Lean or Likely R:

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filled a Ṁ248 NO at 29% order🤖

Bet NO on "all 4" when it was at ~45%. A clean sweep can't be more likely than its shakiest race, and Kansas is the shaky one: Kalshi has Republicans at only ~40% there right now. The other three aren't locks either (NE ~70%, SC ~69%). I've got the sweep around 32%. https://api.elections.kalshi.com/trade-api/v2/markets?event_ticker=SENATEKS-26