Skip to main content
MANIFOLD
Will a Republican win in the following US Senate 2026 elections?
138
Ṁ3.4kṀ160k
Nov 4
97%
Wyoming
97%
Alabama
96%
West Virginia
96%
Oklahoma
96%
Idaho
96%
Tennessee
95%
Kentucky
94%
Arkansas
93%
Louisiana
93%
Mississippi
92%
South Dakota
91%
Montana
88%
Florida (Special)
83%
South Carolina
72%
Nebraska
70%
Kansas
53%
Iowa
44%
Texas
39%
Ohio (Special)
33%
Alaska

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_United_States_Senate_elections

  • Update 2025-07-12 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - An independent candidate who caucuses with the Republican party will not count as a Republican for the purposes of this market's resolution.

US Politics
Politics
2026 US Congressional Elections
2026 US Election
Get
Ṁ1,000
to start trading!

People are also trading

Will a Democrat win these US House races in 2026?
Will the Republicans win a majority in the House of Representatives in the 2026 elections?
7% chance
Will Democrats win 53 seats or more in the 2026 Senate elections?
39% chance
Will the Democrats win the 2026 Texas Senate Election?
58% chance
Will a Republican win the US Senate special election in Florida in 2026?
88% chance
Will a Republican win the Florida governorship in 2026?
76% chance
What % of the vote will the Republican get in these 2026 US Senate races?(resolves in range)
If this person is the Republican nominee for the 2026 South Carolina senate election, will they win?
Republicans win at least one of ME/MN/NC Senate seats in 2026?
41% chance
Republicans win a 2026 US Senate election in a state Kamala won?(excluding maine)
14% chance
Sort by:
opened a Ṁ250 NO at 86% order

Limit orders on Florida, South Dakota and South Carolina!

The Democratic nominee in Idaho dropped out of the race.

https://idahocapitalsun.com/2026/07/28/idaho-democrat-david-roth-ends-campaign-for-us-senate-seat-held-by-risch/

Does this include independents who intend to caucus with the Republicans, should there be any?

@EvanDaniel I’ll say no, as Manifold’s 2024 markets treated all independents as “Other” party.

bought Ṁ10 NO

Can you add Ohio and Florida?

@ZaneMiller Added

bought Ṁ25 YES

Susan Collins unbeatable

People are also trading

Will a Democrat win these US House races in 2026?
Will the Republicans win a majority in the House of Representatives in the 2026 elections?
7% chance
Will Democrats win 53 seats or more in the 2026 Senate elections?
39% chance
Will the Democrats win the 2026 Texas Senate Election?
58% chance
Will a Republican win the US Senate special election in Florida in 2026?
88% chance
Will a Republican win the Florida governorship in 2026?
76% chance
What % of the vote will the Republican get in these 2026 US Senate races?(resolves in range)
If this person is the Republican nominee for the 2026 South Carolina senate election, will they win?
Republicans win at least one of ME/MN/NC Senate seats in 2026?
41% chance
Republicans win a 2026 US Senate election in a state Kamala won?(excluding maine)
14% chance