Skip to main content
MANIFOLD
Will a Republican win in the following US Senate 2026 elections?
129
Ṁ3.4kṀ140k
Nov 4
97%
Mississippi
96%
Arkansas
96%
Wyoming
95%
Tennessee
95%
Alabama
95%
West Virginia
95%
Oklahoma
94%
Louisiana
94%
South Dakota
93%
Kentucky
93%
Idaho
90%
Florida (Special)
88%
South Carolina
87%
Montana
86%
Kansas
73%
Nebraska
56%
Iowa
53%
Texas
51%
Ohio (Special)
47%
Alaska

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_United_States_Senate_elections

  • Update 2025-07-12 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - An independent candidate who caucuses with the Republican party will not count as a Republican for the purposes of this market's resolution.

Market context
Politics
US Politics
2026 US Congressional Elections
2026 US Election
Get
Ṁ1,000
to start trading!

People are also trading

Will the Democrats win the 2026 Texas Senate Election?
48% chance
Republicans win at least one of ME/MN/NC Senate seats in 2026?
41% chance
Republican wins 2026 US Senate election in Louisiana?
95% chance
Will a Republican win the US Senate special election in Florida in 2026?
89% chance
2026 US Senate Election: will the party of the winner of this state's senate seat go on to win senate control?
Will a Republican win the Florida governorship in 2026?
76% chance
What % of the vote will the Republican get in these 2026 US Senate races?(resolves in range)
If this person is the Republican nominee for the 2026 South Carolina senate election, will they win?
Will a Democrat win these US House races in 2026?
Will the Republicans win a majority in the House of Representatives in the 2026 elections?
12% chance
Sort by:

The Democratic nominee in Idaho dropped out of the race.

https://idahocapitalsun.com/2026/07/28/idaho-democrat-david-roth-ends-campaign-for-us-senate-seat-held-by-risch/

Does this include independents who intend to caucus with the Republicans, should there be any?

@EvanDaniel I’ll say no, as Manifold’s 2024 markets treated all independents as “Other” party.

bought Ṁ10 NO

Can you add Ohio and Florida?

@ZaneMiller Added

bought Ṁ25 YES

Susan Collins unbeatable

People are also trading

Will the Democrats win the 2026 Texas Senate Election?
48% chance
Republicans win at least one of ME/MN/NC Senate seats in 2026?
41% chance
Republican wins 2026 US Senate election in Louisiana?
95% chance
Will a Republican win the US Senate special election in Florida in 2026?
89% chance
2026 US Senate Election: will the party of the winner of this state's senate seat go on to win senate control?
Will a Republican win the Florida governorship in 2026?
76% chance
What % of the vote will the Republican get in these 2026 US Senate races?(resolves in range)
If this person is the Republican nominee for the 2026 South Carolina senate election, will they win?
Will a Democrat win these US House races in 2026?
Will the Republicans win a majority in the House of Representatives in the 2026 elections?
12% chance