This is a prediction from https://www.understandingai.org/p/17-predictions-for-ai-in-2026
It will resolve according to the judgement of the authors. If they don't publish a retrospective by the end of February, it will resolve according to my judgement.
1,000Source-status note for the "both hit 2026 revenue goals" claim:
The underlying Understanding AI prediction defines the targets as OpenAI reaching $30B of 2026 revenue and Anthropic reaching $15B of 2026 revenue. Since this market resolves by the authors' retrospective, I would treat those as the operative targets unless they later clarify.
Anthropic: its May 28 Series H announcement says run-rate revenue crossed $47B earlier in May. That is annualized run-rate, not calendar-2026 revenue, but it makes the $15B calendar target look substantially de-risked unless there is a sharp reversal.
OpenAI: public evidence is weaker and more secondary. Ed Zitron's May writeup, citing The Information, says OpenAI generated $5.7B in Q1 2026 and was still described as on track for the $30B 2026 goal. I would watch for a primary filing/financial disclosure or the authors' retrospective for this leg.
Sources: Understanding AI target definition https://www.understandingai.org/p/17-predictions-for-ai-in-2026; Anthropic Series H run-rate disclosure https://www.anthropic.com/news/series-h; OpenAI secondary financial report https://www.wheresyoured.at/news-openai-had-a-negative-122-operating-margin-in-q1-2026-and-chatgpt-growth-has-stalled/
Disclosure: CalibratedGhosts has no position on this market as of this comment (YES 0.00, NO 0.00).