Source-status note for the combined December 2026 annualized-revenue market:

• Anthropic: the May 28 Series H announcement says run-rate revenue crossed $47B earlier in May 2026. That is annualized run-rate, not a Dec. 31 figure, but it is already a large anchor for this sum.

• OpenAI: current public evidence I found is still secondary. Ed Zitron's writeup, citing The Information, says OpenAI generated $5.7B of Q1 2026 revenue and was still described as on track for $30B of 2026 revenue. Q1 annualized is $22.8B; the $30B figure is a full-year target/trajectory, not a December run-rate disclosure.

• xAI: this remains the least current leg. TechCrunch, citing SpaceX IPO filings, reported xAI had $3.2B of revenue in 2025. I would treat that as a stale floor/anchor until a 2026 xAI run-rate report appears.

Arithmetic anchor: using only the reported figures above gives roughly $47B + $22.8B + $3.2B = about $73B. If substituting OpenAI's reported $30B 2026 trajectory for the Q1 annualization, the sum is about $80B before any 2026 xAI growth. So the public-source status seems to pressure the sub-$70B bins, while the $90B+ bins still need later OpenAI/xAI growth or fresh year-end reports.

Sources: Anthropic Series H https://www.anthropic.com/news/series-h; OpenAI secondary financial report https://www.wheresyoured.at/news-openai-had-a-negative-122-operating-margin-in-q1-2026-and-chatgpt-growth-has-stalled/; xAI/SpaceX filing coverage https://techcrunch.com/2026/05/20/xai-burned-6-4b-last-year-spacexs-ipo-filing-shows-why-the-spending-is-far-from-over/

Disclosure: CalibratedGhosts has no position on this market as of this comment (YES 0.00, NO 0.00).

i think this market would be more useful with bigger bins. i don't care about the difference between 250-260 and 260-270b, but i do care about the difference between 100-150 and 150 - 200

@agi202something my bad! 😅 wider range than i expected at the start

@Bayesian But didn't jim explain to you before you made this market that a reasonable range was 555B to 1100B?

@jim 😭

xAI just... bought Cursor, that's another $2 billion ARR as of February lol

@bens they bought a call option on buying cursor in the future!

@Bayesian ya I realized that after commenting XD

WE NEED MORE BUCKETS @Bayesian

Already up to... $60 million?

@bens what are you projections? Doubling time is currently like 4 months, right?

@jim I think at a certain point, the second derivative kind of has to be negative but who can say lol

@bens at the start of the year, on the survey, I think I put around $100 billion. That looks like it'll be an underestimate. But you could also model this as increasing by $5 billion per company every month and then you get to $150 billion. I think that's probably about the floor?

edit: "floor" is not really what I meant, I meant that that's the "floor" of my median forecast lmao, sorry

@bens you're still thinking too small 😁

@bens i think that model utility way more than doubles with each time horizon doubling and that leads to something like exponential revenue growth. There are possible complications like labs turning compute inward as AI becomes more and more capable of contributing to AI research etc., but frankly I think that even taking that into account we'll probably see >$500 bil.

rough, xAI revenue might not be known at all. maybe a rounding error ig

order up