Supposedly OpenAI's revenue as of Q1 was well behind their projected $30 billion for 2026. They made only $5.7 billion, which would be $22.8 billion for the whole year. This is after starting the year on $21.4 billion ARR, so their growth has slowed way down.

https://controlplane.news/newsletter/openai-gross-margin-wrong-way/

Just want to make a general note about all of these revenue markets: It's extremely important to note that "revenue earned in 2026" is different from annualized run rate revenue (revenue earned in a month * 12, basically). I've seen many people confuse the two. I think that most people talk about annualized revenue - it's much more commonly reported (which also makes it a lot easier to resolve), and I personally think it's the more valuable metric.

@jack i agree and might N/A these markets and make the other version, with markets resolving every quarter, and have them be unlinked MC where some number needs to be hit by then, that way more precision in the buckets can be added over time. that's been my plan for a few weeks, didn't get around to it

hmmm if they went public wouldn't they shift to reporting quarter revenue type sht instead of annual recurring revenue?

@Bayesian they would be required to report quarterly revenue but I think a lot of fast growing tech companies also report ARR in addition

@jack I don't think it's a more valuable metric at all. Anthropic and OpenAI will probably both IPO in 2026 or 2027, and in either case will release audited GAAP financials for 2026. ARR figures are not audited or subject to the kind of standards GAAP numbers are, and companies can get away with sketchy bs like counting money they've collected from customers but not actually earned as revenue.

@Bayesian Please do not do this. The market clearly says "2026 revenue", which is obviously a different thing than "Highest ARR in 2026". If traders made trades based on stuff that clearly isn't in the market that is on them.

If somebody made a market called "Jalen Brunson game 3 points" it doesn't resolve to the number he scored in the 4th quarter times 4.

@JaundicedBaboon nobody is saying to change this market, we are saying we should make a new and better market. This is very clear in this discussion.